A couple of crude experiments this Saturday led me to reaffirm my short thesis on Tekmira Pharmaceuticals.
Ending the week on little to no new news regarding the drug TKM-Ebola, Tekmira investors are being forced to wait until the WHO’s meeting Sept. 4-5 to hear more about the drug that they’re convinced is going to yield them a fortune.
I, on the other hand, am a bit more skeptical.
Conducting a Google Trends search randomly this morning, I can see that Mapp Pharmaceutcal’s “ZMapp” – the drug responsibly for possibly curing two of the disease – is getting the significant coverage.
In addition, Google notes that “TKM-Ebola wasn’t searched for often enough to appear on the chart.” Interesting.
Searching the news for the names of the two drugs reveals that ZMapp is getting about 30x the coverage that TKM-Ebola is.
This doesn’t rule out Tekmira getting coverage at some point, but it’s another step in the right direction for Tekmira shorts.
My original short thesis remains in tact:
With an increasing number of shares, and continued losses from operations, we should be able to see a walk down of TKMR’s price as the weeks go on and the Ebola craze is put behind us. $13 and the two moving averages seem to represent the next level of support for the stock – should it move under them, we could be seeing a move back to pre-Ebola levels near $10. The stock is relatively thinly traded and news and analysis on the name could be picked up quickly due to the Ebola trend combined with the derivative nature of people wanting to profit from it (either way).